John McCain, and certainly Mitt Romney, should be worried. Rudy Giuliani may have captured only 9% of the vote, barely coming in above Ron Paul, but he took that 9% in a state that he didn’t put much effort it, landing him squarely in fourth place. Had the former New York City mayor spent more time and money in New Hampshire, there’s a good chance that he would have come in at least second, and perhaps first.
Giuliani, fiscal conservative and social moderate, very likely would have stolen the independent voters that McCain took and quite possibly the Republican voters as well. Had Giuliani campaigned more in NH for the first in the nation primary, Romney would have either taken first or second and McCain, without the independent voters, would have surely come in third with Huckabee in fourth.
Although no stranger to the intricacies of politics, Giuliani’s lack of effort in the granite state reflects a winning strategy. The recent changes in primary dates have drastically increased the importance of states like Florida and Michigan. This new reality demands a new approach, which is to put the real time and money into larger, later states, rather than wasting time and money in a state that he wouldn’t need to gain the republican nomination. Giuliani is hoping to garner enough votes in Florida to break the old paradigm and gain momentum for Super Tuesday on February 5.
Giuliani had the foresight to know that the results in the first couple of states would be so mixed that there would still be no clear frontrunner, with no one having any advantage in momentum. A win in Florida on January 29 will give Giuliani the momentum to carry Super Tuesday, similar to Huckabee’s surge just before Iowa and result in getting him the nomination. “President Giuliani” is pretty catchy once you say it a few times.
January 10th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Giuliani has fallen to fourth in Michigan with 8% in the last poll I saw. At some point he’s got to actually campaign in a state if he’s really running for President.
Having said that, I like Giuliani and he’d probably be my second choice behind McCain. But he should have picked an earlier state to make a stand in.
January 10th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
The last polls I saw showed him doing very well in Florida. Only time will tell if his strategy will work, but I’m thinking that it might.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Lets hope his strategy works! Without putting the safety of our country and economy first, health care and other social issues are meaningless. I stand behind Giuliani and hope the rest of Wisconsin gets behind him as well.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Guiliani has a great message. Unfortunately he’s having a hard time getting it out there. He’s tough on immigration, terrorism, and has some great ideas on jump starting the economy. He’s putting all his eggs in one basket. Lets hope and pray that it works.