Polls in today’s South Carolina Republican primary are showing all sorts of crazy and conflicting numbers. With no clear indicator of who will win or the order of finish for any of the top four candidates in the state.
The last poll released today by American Research Group shows Mike Huckabee in the lead with 33%, followed by John McCain in second place with 26%, and a surprisingly strong Fred Thompson in third with 21%. Mitt Romney is far behind with only 9%.
But, polls the day before conducted by Fox News and Insider Advantage showed totally different pictures…
The Fox News poll showed McCain leading Huckabee by 27-20%, with Romney in third at 15%. But, the Insider Advantage poll showed McCain and Huckabee tied with 26% each, and Romney and Thompson each tied at 13%.
So there’s really no clear direction on any of this. The one thing that is certain is that Fred Thompson needs a win in order to keep his campaign afloat. If that doesn’t happen, he’s probably reached the end of the line. Assuming Fred doesn’t pull it off, the South Carolina race could have several other outcomes. Here are a few possibilities…
1. McCain wins, beats Huckabee on his home turf. This puts McCain in the driver’s seat heading towards Florida and Super Tuesday.
2. Huckabee wins, shows he’s a serious contender. Hurts McCain somewhat, but the blow could be softened a lot by Fred Thompson’s withdrawl and endorsement.
3. Mitt Romney might surge into second place somehow, throwing the race into even more chaos. Since Romney is virtually assured a victory in Nevada (he’s the only candidate campaigning there)… a strong SC showing would make it Mitt’s night. Even if McCain or Huckabee won.
With an important Democratic contest in Nevada, the first same-day multi-state (ok, it’s only two) elections of the primary season, and the potential that one or more candidates will be forced to exit the race… it’s sure to be an interesting night!
Leave a Reply