Oil rocketing towards $200/barrel
Posted on 05.06.08 by Stephen Covington @ 11:47 pm

Petroleum is fast becoming an even more valuable commodity than usual as prices are currently hovering at $120, and there is no probable end in sight. With India and China both growing at phenomenal rates, oil is realistically set to go to $200 in the next two years, and beyond, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. Drilling in ANWR is often brought up as a possible solution, but as one oil field out of many, this would be a drop in the bucket - and, that oil would not go exclusively to the United States. It would be sold on the open market like any other commodity. Oil shale, liquid coal and ethanol are also popular subjects. As we’re seeing now, corn ethanol production is highly inefficient and is great at producing global famine.

There seems to be growing indications from the market that petroleum is simply becoming impractical as a long-term, large-scale energy solution. Its growing rarity makes it expensive, and it requires substantial amounts of infrastructure (pumping wells, pipelines, tankers, refineries, etc) for distribution purposes. All of these infrastructure points are highly susceptible to attacks from terrorism - as an example, consider the recent attacks in Nigeria. A continuing dependence on this shaky source of energy makes us highly vulnerable to the whims of the world.

It’s time that everyone - especially those concerned about national security - accept that we would be best served by hurrying along new forms of energy as soon as possible. Electric engines are inherently more efficient than the gasoline-driven variety; an engine that moves a car with electric power generated through the use of a small gasoline engine is actually more efficient than using a single gasoline engine. The main advantage of electric-only cars is that electricity, unlike gasoline or ethanol, is available from a nearly infinite number of sources; if the grid is compromised, people can charge their cars using a backup battery, solar panels, treadmill, etc.

This shift to a new energy paradigm is going to happen anyway, so it’s better that we define how energy technology evolves, rather than following behind Japan or China. The transition may be painful, but plugging in every day can’t possibly have as bad of an economic impact as shelling out $10 for a gallon of gasoline.


Filed under: Financial News and Opinion and The Economy
Comments:

1 Comment »

  1. While politicians seem to have there heads stuck in the sand, private investors are seeing the writting on the wall. T Boon Pickens is investing in gigawatts of wind power. There are also many multi hundred megawatt solar thermal plants in the works. Unlike PV, solar thermal simply uses mirrors and turbines, old low tech. Not only that heat can be stored to produce energy on demand. At the same time the Tesla Roadster beats gasoline powered sports cars with lithium batteries. I wouldn’t be surprised to see electrification of the long haul freight lines before long either.

    Many investment opportunities for anyone with a little guts.

    Comment by Larry — May 9, 2008 @ 11:40 pm

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