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Posted on 01.05.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 5:12 am
Alan Keyes is making his third bid for the White House this year. Back in 2000, Keyes finished third in the Iowa caucuses with a surprising 14% of the vote. But his campaign this time around was practically stillborn… launched late, in debt, and polling at the very bottom of an already crowded field. Some people have suggested that he’s only running to help pay down past campaign bills, and that he will continue his campaign as a third party or independent candidate in order to continue paying down such debts. Keyes expected to see a report showing how many votes he won in yesterday’s Iowa caucus. But that report never came… as apparently his name was left out of the system and votes for him were not tallied or reported to the state headquarters. From a statement released by the campaign…
The Keyes organization claims that they believe their candidate received a significant number of votes yesterday and suggest a conspiracy involving the use of “communist-style” tactics to surpress his support… “I voted for Alan Keyes,” said Siena Hoefling of Calhoun County. “It’s ridiculous they didn’t report my vote. Each precinct could have easily called or emailed the vote tallies to headquarters, so they should have been counted by now.” To completely leave off the name of one active candidate while including the name of another candidate who had already dropped out… at the bare minimum this seems like a monumental screw-up on the part of the Iowa Republican Party. At worst, like election fraud. With voter trust in elections already at an all-time low, this certainly won’t help matters any. Filed under: Alan Keyes and Election Results and Iowa Caucus Comments: 3 Comments |
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Posted on 01.04.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 4:29 am
The results are largely in and there are some clear winners and losers tonight… WINNER: Mike Huckabee - Blows past Mitt Romney despite being wildly outspent and slammed with huge amounts of negative advertising. WINNER: Barack Obama - Obviously he won, but his win is even more notable because Hillary Clinton finished third place. WINNER: John McCain - Romney is wounded and McCain’s path in New Hampshire is largely clear. Plus a decent 13% showing in a state he spent no money or time in. LOSER: Mitt Romney - The Romney campaign is sinking fast and if he can’t turn things around in the next few days, he’ll be heading back to Boston before the end of the month. LOSER: Hillary Clinton - Hugely disappointing third place showing puts Hillary into a tough fight against Obama and Edwards… she’s no longer the frontrunner. OTHER WINNERS: John Edwards and Ron Paul - Edwards kept his campaign alive and kicking with a second place showing and Ron Paul showed he can win some actual votes in a real caucus. New Hampshire will be a huge test for both of these candidates. OTHER LOSERS: Everyone else - Particularly Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, who posted absolutely pathetic showings and will probably abandon their campaigns within 48 hours. ————————- UPDATED: * Dodd to drop out sometime tomorrow, after he returns to his home state of Connecticut. * CNN and MSNBC are both saying that Joe Biden will bow out in the next couple of days. No word on who he might endorse. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Iowa Caucus Comments: 4 Comments |
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Posted on 01.04.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 1:03 am
Keep up with the results as they come in tonight… DEMOCRATS: Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Iowa Caucus Comments: 1 Comment |
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Posted on 01.03.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 1:48 pm
This is almost a complete guess on my part, but I’ll go ahead and make some predictions for tonight’s results. Let’s see how very wrong I am once things are counted up… REPUBLICANS Some Notes: Thompson and McCain have been picking up steam in the last month. McCain’s boost came because of the recent newspaper endorsements. He’s spent little time and almost no money in Iowa. Meanwhile, Fred Thompson’s fortunes have improved because he’s staked his whole campaign and organization on an all-out bus tour of the state. So either of them might do a bit better. If McCain breaks past 20% — the whole race is over with. If Thompson is worse than fourth place… he’s out of the race before New Hampshire. Actually, anything less than third might still put him out of the race. And then there’s Ron Paul. Some are predicting he’ll surge into third place because his supporters are so incredibly die hard. It wouldn’t shock me if my predicted results for McCain and Paul flipped. Even though McCain’s support has ticked up a little bit… he has zero organization in the state and wasn’t active much until he got the Register’s endorsement. The polls might be over-stating or under-stating Paul’s real support. Remember that these caucuses require people to head out in the cold and sit around in a church basement with their grandparents for the entire evening. And then, in many cases, to publicly walk to a different side of the room than their grandparents and declare their support for a very different kind of Republican candidate in front of their whole town. Paul has some of the most dedicated supporters, no doubt. But he also has many of the youngest ones… and those are very unpredictable. I personally know both types of Ron Paul supporter. Ones who would follow the Ron Paul blimp around up and down the East Coast. And ones who hate politics and just sort of hope that he wins. But that second group doesn’t care enough to go something complicated and unpleasant for him… like attend a Republican caucus. I could see Ron Paul finishing anywhere from 5% to 20%. Lower if the college students stay in and drink beer to stay warm. Or higher if everyone comes out in full force during a low turn-out election and they really swamp the polls. And even though I really don’t care too much, I’ll make some predictions on the Democratic side as well… DEMOCRATS I know that I’m going way out on a limb as most polls predict that Obama will take it. But if Edwards does win, this will turn the race upside down and obviously be much more fun to watch. And I’d really just like to see Hillary in third place. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Iowa Caucus Comments: None |
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Posted on 01.03.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 6:08 am
It seems like this campaign has been dragging on for months, or even years. And really, it has been. But now things are going to get really interesting. By late evening tonight we’re going to have some concrete winners and losers. And the winners and losers might not be directly tied to who gets the most votes. This is a game of expectations, and any candidate who fails to meet expectations may have a hard time living on to fight another day in New Hampshire and beyond. For the Republicans, it appears to have come down to Huckabee and Romney — running neck and neck for several weeks. If Huckabee wins, he’ll probably see a big boost in New Hampshire and elsewhere. And that might very well spell the beginning of the end of Mitt Romney. The fight for third place is almost as important… with most polls suggesting Fred Thompson to seize the bronze medal. Should John McCain or Ron Paul jump up and eclipse the former Senator/actor… tomorrow night could be the end of the line for Fred. For the Democrats, it looks like Hillary is sinking and that a surprise win by Edwards could thoroughly mix up that race. There has also been talk of a late spark for Senator Joe Biden… but we’ll have to wait and see on all of this. Tonight promises to be quite an event! Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Iowa Caucus Comments: None |
