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Posted on 01.10.08 by Ginger West @ 2:20 pm
John McCain, and certainly Mitt Romney, should be worried. Rudy Giuliani may have captured only 9% of the vote, barely coming in above Ron Paul, but he took that 9% in a state that he didn’t put much effort it, landing him squarely in fourth place. Had the former New York City mayor spent more time and money in New Hampshire, there’s a good chance that he would have come in at least second, and perhaps first. Giuliani, fiscal conservative and social moderate, very likely would have stolen the independent voters that McCain took and quite possibly the Republican voters as well. Had Giuliani campaigned more in NH for the first in the nation primary, Romney would have either taken first or second and McCain, without the independent voters, would have surely come in third with Huckabee in fourth. Although no stranger to the intricacies of politics, Giuliani’s lack of effort in the granite state reflects a winning strategy. The recent changes in primary dates have drastically increased the importance of states like Florida and Michigan. This new reality demands a new approach, which is to put the real time and money into larger, later states, rather than wasting time and money in a state that he wouldn’t need to gain the republican nomination. Giuliani is hoping to garner enough votes in Florida to break the old paradigm and gain momentum for Super Tuesday on February 5. Giuliani had the foresight to know that the results in the first couple of states would be so mixed that there would still be no clear frontrunner, with no one having any advantage in momentum. A win in Florida on January 29 will give Giuliani the momentum to carry Super Tuesday, similar to Huckabee’s surge just before Iowa and result in getting him the nomination. “President Giuliani” is pretty catchy once you say it a few times. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Election Results and NH Primary and Poll Results Comments: 4 Comments |
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Posted on 01.09.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 2:39 am
Most media outlets have now declared Senator John McCain as the victor of the New Hampshire Republican primary. One of the bigger surprises in the exit polling data is that McCain beat Romney by roughly the same margin among independents as he did among Republicans. This suggests that McCain may have successfully moved himself into a position as someone who is able to win closed primaries and eventually the GOP nomination. Mitt Romney finished second in a state he’s lead in for months. This is another crushing disappointment for the Massachusetts millionaire, and it sets up next week’s Michigan primary as an absolute must-win for Romney in order to continue his campaign. After all, Mitt was born in Michigan, he’s spent a fortune on his organization there, and his dad was the governor of the state during the 1960’s. Polls have shown him leading Huckabee by about 2%, with McCain in third place. But those numbers are over a week old and all that may have changed now that both Huckabee and McCain have won major contests. Further behind, Mike Huckabee is currently leading Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul in a close race for third place. Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter, and Alan Keyes are barely registering support. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Election Results and NH Primary Comments: None |
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Posted on 01.08.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 5:48 am
The tiny New Hampshire towns of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location have a tradition of opening and closing their polls right at midnight. They can do this because of the small size of their town and a rule that says a town’s polls may be closed once every possible voter has cast a ballot. After those first two towns have cast ballots… John McCain - 10 votes (43%) Among the Democrats… Barack Obama - 16 votes (70%) These towns aren’t always the best measure of statewide success. In 2000, Hart’s Location voted for George W. Bush and in 2004, Wesley Clark got the most Democratic primary votes in both Hart’s Location and Dixville Notch. Mitt Romney has been rumored to be on the rebound in the last 2-3 days, and polls have him dead even with John McCain. But on the Democrat side, Barack Obama is rapidly pulling ahead of Hillary Clinton and most expect that the contest between them won’t be very close. If McCain wins New Hampshire, conservative columnists (including Robert Novak) have suggested he will become the new national front-runner for the Republican nomination. If Romney wins today, it’s likely that the McCain-Romney duel will continue right on to next week in Michigan… a state that McCain won in 2000, but where Mitt Romney’s father served as governor. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Election Results and NH Primary Comments: None |
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Posted on 01.07.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 8:09 pm
Duncan Hunter announced earlier today that he would be making a major announcement about the future of his campaign today in New Hampshire. Whenever a losing candidate plans a “major announcement” it usually means that they’re dropping out of the race. That wasn’t the case today. But the media took the bait, speculating that Hunter was dropping out and might be preparing to endorse either Mitt Romney or John McCain. But anyone paying close attention to Hunter would have known he had no plans to drop out. He sent emails to supporters earlier in the day touting his “close third place finish in Wyoming” and under the radar strategy that focuses on Nevada, Michigan, and other later states. Hunter’s “close” third place was an 8% result that earned him a single delegate in Saturday’s Wyoming caucuses. Fred Thompson was second with 25%. When the time came for his big announcement, Hunter made a little bit of a show about it… “So here’s my answer: I’m not going to quit. I’m staying in.” The danger with this strategy, of course, is that media outlets might report the rumor that he’s dropping out without any follow-up. So, some of his small legion of backers might be under the impression that he’s no longer in the race. But on the flip-side, he did manage to inject his name into some headlines after being shut out of two debates over the weekend and being largely ignored by the media. Hunter has nothing to lose, he’s already announced his retirement from Congress, so why not stick around and fight through a few more states? Filed under: Campaign 2008 and NH Primary Comments: 3 Comments |
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Posted on 01.07.08 by Stephen Covington @ 1:20 pm
Senators John McCain and Barack Obama appear to be pulling away from their nearest rivals in New Hampshire, according to Zogby polling. If this is the way the general election will shape up, it could be very interesting indeed - two candidates who, while virtually polar opposites on most issues, still have a significant amount of appeal to many members of the opposite party. Clinton, on the other hand, seems to lose a lot of her traditional supporters when push comes to shove - this could signal an awareness of a possible “political dynasty” - Bush, Clinton, Bush…another Clinton may be hard to digest in the end.
Filed under: Campaign 2008 and NH Primary and Poll Results Comments: 1 Comment |
