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Posted on 02.03.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 6:25 am
Talk radio hosts and some Romney supporters have started to spread a myth that McCain as the Republican nominee would damage the party. That conservatives will not vote for McCain and that he would be soundly defeated by the Democratic nominee. But the polling shows that the exact opposite is true. In the Real Clear Politics “poll of polls” that averages all recent national polling, Romney as the nominee would be a disaster for the GOP. McCain 46.6% McCain 44.4% Clinton 51.0% Obama 51.2% Remember these numbers the next time Ann Coulter or Rush Limbaugh mouth off about how unelectable McCain really is. They must be using some sort of new math, I guess. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and John McCain and Mitt Romney and Poll Results Comments: 3 Comments |
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Posted on 01.29.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 11:25 pm
Early exit poll results from Florida show that the economy is the dominant issue for Republican voters. About half of Republicans cited it as their top issue, while terrorism, Iraq, and illegal immigration split the other half of the pie. Romney has hammered economic issues hard and conventional wisdom suggests that the mindset of voters is favorable for a Romney win. A local Pensacola NBC affiliate is reporting a strong Romney showing at some local voting locations. The Panhandle was long thought to be a source of some McCain strength and recent polls showed McCain with a slight lead in that part of the state.
It’s important to remember though that random sampling of exit polls from one or two precincts isn’t an effective way to judge larger trends. But the focus on economic concerns suggests a slight advantage for Romney. Another bad sign for McCain is that only 5-7% of voters appear to be Cuban, a community that’s expected to be strong for him following the endorsement of Mel Martinez. Exit polling has been way off in the past, just consider the 2004 elections. And early exit numbers that are leaked on blogs and local TV stations tend to be even less accurate. We’ll just have to wait another couple of hours to see how all of this shakes out. Polls begin closing at 7pm Eastern and the final polls will close at 8pm. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Florida Primary and Poll Results Comments: 34 Comments |
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Posted on 01.28.08 by Stephen Covington @ 6:05 am
The most recent Rasmussen poll out on Saturday shows Mitt Romney at 33%, 6 points over John McCain’s 27% in Florida, leading up to the state’s January 29 primary election. Giuliani follows with 18%, and Huckabee and Paul with 12% and 2%, respectively. The telephone poll was conducted with 500 likely Republican voters, and was conducted just before Crist’s endorsement of the Arizona senator.
McCain is doing well with economy-focused voters, considering his recent gaffe involving that subject. Romney’s strong stance on immigration seems to be helping him in Florida, a state with an increasingly large population of migrant workers, some of whom are left over from the construction boom, and many are moving to very conservative, rural areas that have not previously encountered them. The real impact of Crist’s endorsement remains to be seen, but we won’t have to wait long - the time that could decisively turn the tide to one candidate or the other is now less than 48 hours away. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and John McCain and Mitt Romney and Poll Results Comments: 12 Comments |
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Posted on 01.25.08 by Stephen Covington @ 7:28 pm
A January 24 poll in Florida shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney holding a slight lead over Senator John McCain in the battle for the Sunshine State’s valuable delegate votes. The Mason-Dixon poll of 400 voters ranks Romney at 30%, with McCain at 26%. Giuliani and Huckabee take up the rear with 18% and 15%, respectively. 10% of voters have still not made up their minds as to who they will support between now and January 29, the state’s official primary date. Romney has received strong support from many members of the Republican party establishment in Florida, as a result of tacit urgings by former Governor Jeb Bush, and current Crist advisors. McCain also has many members of the Congressional delegation on his side and other advisors including Bush’s former chief of staff Kathleen Shanahan. For the most part, these quasi-endorsements are largely immaterial as voters decide whose delegates get picked, but they do act as a barometer for statewide political support. Polls at most locations in Florida will open at 7:00 AM and close at 7:00 PM on January 29. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Florida Primary and Poll Results Comments: 2 Comments |
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Posted on 01.19.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 7:34 am
Polls in today’s South Carolina Republican primary are showing all sorts of crazy and conflicting numbers. With no clear indicator of who will win or the order of finish for any of the top four candidates in the state. The last poll released today by American Research Group shows Mike Huckabee in the lead with 33%, followed by John McCain in second place with 26%, and a surprisingly strong Fred Thompson in third with 21%. Mitt Romney is far behind with only 9%. But, polls the day before conducted by Fox News and Insider Advantage showed totally different pictures… The Fox News poll showed McCain leading Huckabee by 27-20%, with Romney in third at 15%. But, the Insider Advantage poll showed McCain and Huckabee tied with 26% each, and Romney and Thompson each tied at 13%. So there’s really no clear direction on any of this. The one thing that is certain is that Fred Thompson needs a win in order to keep his campaign afloat. If that doesn’t happen, he’s probably reached the end of the line. Assuming Fred doesn’t pull it off, the South Carolina race could have several other outcomes. Here are a few possibilities… 1. McCain wins, beats Huckabee on his home turf. This puts McCain in the driver’s seat heading towards Florida and Super Tuesday. 2. Huckabee wins, shows he’s a serious contender. Hurts McCain somewhat, but the blow could be softened a lot by Fred Thompson’s withdrawl and endorsement. 3. Mitt Romney might surge into second place somehow, throwing the race into even more chaos. Since Romney is virtually assured a victory in Nevada (he’s the only candidate campaigning there)… a strong SC showing would make it Mitt’s night. Even if McCain or Huckabee won. With an important Democratic contest in Nevada, the first same-day multi-state (ok, it’s only two) elections of the primary season, and the potential that one or more candidates will be forced to exit the race… it’s sure to be an interesting night! Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Poll Results Comments: None |
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Posted on 01.18.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 7:23 am
Well, this has certainly been an interesting primary season, and the next few weeks promise to keep things going! Underdog Mike Huckabee came from out of the blue to win the Iowa Caucuses despite being massively outspent. John McCain, who the media had declared dead 100 times during the summer, came back and won a surprise victory in New Hampshire. On the ropes, Mormon millionaire Mitt Romney poured cash into his home state of Michigan and pulled off a do-or-die win in that state. Now, the focus turns to South Carolina, Nevada, Florida, and Maine. And then… SUPER TUESDAY! What are the polls showing so far? Well, on a national level John McCain has become the new front-runner, leading the pack by 5-10% in most surveys. The individual state polls are a whole lot less certain. The most important contest right now is South Carolina. It may make or break Fred Thompson’s campaign and will probably come close to doing the same for Mike Huckabee. Thompson will be out if he doesn’t get a win there, while Huckabee just needs a win to prove that Iowa wasn’t a fluke or the result of voters voting against Mitt Romney and not for Huckabee. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary shows that John McCain and Mike Huckabee are tied at 24%. In a race that has already seen four different candidates with the lead, much could still change in the coming days–7% of voters have yet to make up their mind, 10% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and another 24% might change their mind. Mitt Romney attracts 18% support and Fred Thompson 16%. Those figures are little changed from the previous survey. Both Romney and Thompson have led in South Carolina at some point over the past several months. The latest survey was conducted the night after Mitt Romney’s victory in Michigan. Ron Paul attracts 5% support and Rudy Giuliani 3%. The same day South Carolina votes, the less important Nevada caucuses are being held. Expect Mitt Romney to capitalize on the fact that he’s the only one really campaigning out there and the state has a large Mormon population. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds four candidates essentially tied for the lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary, to be held January 29th. It’s McCain 19%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, and Huckabee 17%. Fred Thompson is a few points off the pace at 11% while Ron Paul is a distant sixth with support from 5% of likely voters. Rudy Giuliani desperately needs a win in Florida to remain relevant on Super Tuesday. In an election season filled with surprises, New Jersey’s Republican Primary voters may be considering a surprise of their own. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of that February 5 contest shows Arizona Senator John McCain two points ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. John McCain has a seven point lead over Mitt Romney in California’s Republican Presidential Primary. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone poll of the race shows McCain earning 24% of the vote while Romney attracts 17%. More than ten points behind the leader are Mike Huckabee at 13%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Rudy Giuliani at 11%. But as we’ve seen, these numbers can change radically by the day. We won’t know anything for sure until the ballots are cast and counted. There’s even a slim chance this fight could go all the way to the convention floor, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Odds are we will know who both the Republican and Democratic nominees are on the morning of February 6th. Filed under: Poll Results Comments: 1 Comment |
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Posted on 01.13.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 12:20 pm
It couldn’t be any more clear in the polling. Willard “Mitt” Romney would be a disaster for the Republican party in the general election. A pair of recent head-to-head matchup polls from Hotline paints a pretty clear picture of the current situation… McCain 47%, Clinton 43% McCain beats Clinton and keeps within the margin-of-error on Barack Obama. But Romney loses to Clinton by more than 10% and loses to Obama by much more than that! Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Poll Results Comments: 2 Comments |
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Posted on 01.10.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 10:45 pm
Following John McCain’s surprise victory in New Hampshire, the first post-primary polls have started to come out in South Carolina. The numbers have got to be concerning to supporters of Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Both of those candidates have essentially staked their campaigns on a win in the first Southern primary to boost them into contention by Super Tuesday. A Rasmussen poll taken two days before New Hampshire showed Mike Huckabee in the lead in South Carolina: 28 Huckabee, 21 McCain, 15 Romney, 11 Thompson, 10 Giuliani. Rasmussen’s latest poll, taken the day after New Hampshire voted, shows a significant shift: 27 McCain, 24 Huckabee, 16 Romney, 12 Thompson, and 6 for Giuliani. A Fox News poll taken at the same time showed McCain with 25% over Huckabee with 18% and Romney with 17%. The Real Clear Politics polling average (the poll of polls) still shows Huckabee ahead in South Carolina, but these latest numbers suggest a surge in support for Senator McCain. Filed under: Poll Results and SC Primary Comments: 2 Comments |
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Posted on 01.10.08 by Ginger West @ 2:20 pm
John McCain, and certainly Mitt Romney, should be worried. Rudy Giuliani may have captured only 9% of the vote, barely coming in above Ron Paul, but he took that 9% in a state that he didn’t put much effort it, landing him squarely in fourth place. Had the former New York City mayor spent more time and money in New Hampshire, there’s a good chance that he would have come in at least second, and perhaps first. Giuliani, fiscal conservative and social moderate, very likely would have stolen the independent voters that McCain took and quite possibly the Republican voters as well. Had Giuliani campaigned more in NH for the first in the nation primary, Romney would have either taken first or second and McCain, without the independent voters, would have surely come in third with Huckabee in fourth. Although no stranger to the intricacies of politics, Giuliani’s lack of effort in the granite state reflects a winning strategy. The recent changes in primary dates have drastically increased the importance of states like Florida and Michigan. This new reality demands a new approach, which is to put the real time and money into larger, later states, rather than wasting time and money in a state that he wouldn’t need to gain the republican nomination. Giuliani is hoping to garner enough votes in Florida to break the old paradigm and gain momentum for Super Tuesday on February 5. Giuliani had the foresight to know that the results in the first couple of states would be so mixed that there would still be no clear frontrunner, with no one having any advantage in momentum. A win in Florida on January 29 will give Giuliani the momentum to carry Super Tuesday, similar to Huckabee’s surge just before Iowa and result in getting him the nomination. “President Giuliani” is pretty catchy once you say it a few times. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Election Results and NH Primary and Poll Results Comments: 4 Comments |
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Posted on 01.07.08 by Stephen Covington @ 1:20 pm
Senators John McCain and Barack Obama appear to be pulling away from their nearest rivals in New Hampshire, according to Zogby polling. If this is the way the general election will shape up, it could be very interesting indeed - two candidates who, while virtually polar opposites on most issues, still have a significant amount of appeal to many members of the opposite party. Clinton, on the other hand, seems to lose a lot of her traditional supporters when push comes to shove - this could signal an awareness of a possible “political dynasty” - Bush, Clinton, Bush…another Clinton may be hard to digest in the end.
Filed under: Campaign 2008 and NH Primary and Poll Results Comments: 1 Comment |
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