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Posted on 01.27.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 7:13 pm
Lost in all this talk of Barack Obama’s big victory in South Carolina is the surprising fact that John Edwards won his own sort of victory. Among non-black voters, according to CNN exit polls, John Edwards was the favorite pick. Obama did win non-black voters under age 29, but they made up just 5% of the total electorate. Meanwhile Edwards won outright or tied Hillary Clinton for non-black voters in all other age categories. Why did Edwards perform so poorly overall, winning about 18% in total? Well, he captured only about 3% of the total black vote. A pretty dismal showing that highlights just how poalized the Democratic party has become along racial lines. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Election Results and SC Primary Comments: None |
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Posted on 01.27.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 5:31 pm
Clearly shaken up by Hillary’s landslide defeat in South Carolina last night, former President Bill Clinton took yet another swing at Barack Obama: ”Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in ‘84 and ‘88. Jackson ran a good campaign. And Obama ran a good campaign here.” Jake Tapper of ABC News summed up the Clinton comment: “Boy, I can’t understand why anyone would think the Clintons are running a race-baiting campaign to paint Obama as ‘the black candidate.’” This kind of racial division within the Democratic Party could destroy their chances for victory in November. Democrats have leaned heavily on the African-American vote and yesterday Obama captured about 80% of it in South Carolina. If Hillary is the nominee, alienated black voters may flock to likely Green Party nominee Cynthia McKinney. Filed under: Barack Obama and Campaign 2008 and Democrats and Hillary Clinton and SC Primary Comments: 1 Comment |
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Posted on 01.27.08 by Stephen Covington @ 1:53 am
Barack Obama has been projected by CNN as the winner of the South Carolina Democratic Primary, with 54% of votes over Clinton’s 27%, and 67% of precincts reporting. These results significantly exceed expectations from a Reuters poll on January 25 that showed him leading Clinton 41% to 26%. Obama has easily doubled Clinton’s vote. Much of this shifting support may be among African-American voters, who have been a major enigma for pollsters in this election. Although Obama has received mixed support from the black community as a whole, there has been some speculation that Clinton’s recently harsh criticism of the Illinois senator may have spurred a backlash among many voters that otherwise would have remained divided, and could not be convinced to go back even with the constant urging of former president Bill Clinton. Whether this situation is restricted to South Carolina, or will also occur in other Southern states such as Alabama and Georgia will be decided on February 5. Filed under: Barack Obama and Democrats and Election Results and Hillary Clinton and SC Primary Comments: None |
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Posted on 01.26.08 by Stephen Covington @ 3:57 pm
The South Carolina primary today is not quite as important for Democrats as it was for Republicans on January 19, but the contest could go a long way toward deciding who that party’s nominee will be.
Barack Obama has been leading most polls by a wide margin, but the real battle might be for second place. John Edwards, declared dead by the media, has been crawling back into this race bit-by-bit. Polling shows that he’s creeping up behind Hillary Clinton and could score an upset second place finish. That would give Edwards a little bit of a boost, but it would really damage Clinton. Her victories so far have been unconvincing, and have only just made up for her third place finish in Iowa. A third place showing in South Carolina could really hurt her going into Florida (where she can’t even campaign) and the Super Tuesday states. If, somehow, Obama wins a big victory in South Carolina tonight… that momentum could carry him to a surprise win in Florida and make it really hard for Hillary to get back on the horse. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Democrats and SC Primary Comments: None |
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Posted on 01.20.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 2:06 am
A huge victory tonight for the McCain campaign as the Arizona Senator scored a win in the South Carolina Republican primary. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee placed second. It’s still a fight for third place between Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney. With 69% of the vote counted, McCain is holding steady with 34%. Huckabee trails with 30%, Thompson 16%, and Romney 15%. As this is a winner-take-all state, McCain will recieve all 24 of the state’s convention delegates. There is no prize for second place. These numbers are terrible for Fred Thompson, who had essentially made the South Carolina primary the site of his last stand. Thompson pulled his entire staff from Washington and everywhere else and has focused like a laser on the state since his third place showing in Iowa. While he hasn’t officially stated that he will be dropping out, Thompson’s concession speech tonight sounded very much like someone who was not expecting to continue to campaign. He thanked his friends, staff, and supporters and referred to the campaign as a journey. No mention was made of moving forward or fighting on into Florida or beyond. McCain will get a big momentum boost from his win in South Carolina. And it’s widely expected that Thompson will endorse McCain, adding even more fuel to the fire. In addition to all of this, there are rumors that Florida Senator Mel Martinez or Governor Charlie Crist may come out and make an official endorsement of McCain this week. All of this is suggesting that McCain could sweep to victory in Florida next week, then Maine, and then wrap up the nomination on February 5th. But we’ll just have to wait and see. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and Election Results and John McCain and SC Primary Comments: None |
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Posted on 01.19.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 8:03 pm
As if the South Carolina primary wasn’t mixed up enough, a big snow storm, rain, and voting problems are adding even more confusion. “We have received reports from Horry County that voters are being turned away from the polls, because electronic voting machines are not working and paper ballots are not available,” Buzz Jacobs, McCain’s South Carolina state director, said in a statement. “Some voters say they are being instructed to return at a later time. We are disturbed by these reports and hope that this issue is resolved immediately. We encourage any voters who were turned away from the polls to return again to their polling place this afternoon to exercise their constitutional right to vote.” With weather slowing down travel and supressing turn-out among some older and disabled voters (potentially including the state’s huge veteran’s population) the McCain campaign sounds like they feel the results are out of their hands. In fact, Senator McCain decided to go check out a movie to pass some time in the afternoon. The Senator and his wife went to see “There Will Be Blood,” a historical epic set in California’s oil-boom days of the early 20th century. According to the Associated Press, McCain had visited some key precincts early in the morning and then vivisted a defense manufacturer in the state…
The weather could have some negatives for Mike Huckabee, as rural voters might be more likely to support the Southern Governor. But evangelicals are highly motivated to come out and the conventional wisdom is that snow is good for Huckabee. We’ll just have to wait and see. Filed under: Campaign 2008 and SC Primary Comments: None |
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Posted on 01.19.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 4:59 pm
For most of 2007, millionaire businessman John Cox traveled the early primary states in support of his self-financed Republican Presidential campaign. He spoke at events, participated in straw polls, and had paid staff in several states, before the more “serious” candidates were even established. The Weekly Standard declared him the sane fringe candidate. But he was shut out of all the major televised debates. The media largely ignored him. And late last year it seemed as if he given up. Many states were refusing to place him on their primary ballots and he had exausted at least a million dollars of his own money with practically nothing to show for it. On October 27, 2007, Cox “all but conceded defeat” during the annual Reagan Dinner in Des Moines, Iowa, sponsored by the Republican Party of Iowa. However, Cox then told the media that he would stick it out through the early primaries and continue to fight for the conservative positions he holds. Then, on December 19, 2007, Cox told Chicago Tribune reporter Eric Zorn that he had closed his campaign offices in late November, and said competing in the presidential race was a lost cause. Finally, at the end of December Cox was quoted as saying he would continue to try and have an impact on the race in the states where he had already qualified for the ballot. In Iowa, the state party reported no results for Cox… suggesting he recieved only a smattering of votes. In New Hampshire, Cox polled only about 40 votes. But Cox is on the ballot today in South Carolina and he is apparently campaigning there in some capacity. I had a chuckle this morning when looking at today’s CNN election coverage and seeing several John Cox signs prominently placed in the center of the graphic…
Cox will be one of a trio of lesser known Republicans who paid the hefty fee to qualify for today’s SC primary. The others are local Georgia politician Cap Fendig and conservative activist Hugh Cort. Like Cox, both of these candidates receieved no measurable support in Iowa and only a few dozen votes in New Hampshire. Find out more about these third-tier candidates… —> John Cox for President Filed under: Campaign 2008 and SC Primary Comments: 1 Comment |
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Posted on 01.10.08 by Austin Cassidy @ 10:45 pm
Following John McCain’s surprise victory in New Hampshire, the first post-primary polls have started to come out in South Carolina. The numbers have got to be concerning to supporters of Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Both of those candidates have essentially staked their campaigns on a win in the first Southern primary to boost them into contention by Super Tuesday. A Rasmussen poll taken two days before New Hampshire showed Mike Huckabee in the lead in South Carolina: 28 Huckabee, 21 McCain, 15 Romney, 11 Thompson, 10 Giuliani. Rasmussen’s latest poll, taken the day after New Hampshire voted, shows a significant shift: 27 McCain, 24 Huckabee, 16 Romney, 12 Thompson, and 6 for Giuliani. A Fox News poll taken at the same time showed McCain with 25% over Huckabee with 18% and Romney with 17%. The Real Clear Politics polling average (the poll of polls) still shows Huckabee ahead in South Carolina, but these latest numbers suggest a surge in support for Senator McCain. Filed under: Poll Results and SC Primary Comments: 2 Comments |
